Since the day Steve Kragthorpe was fired as head coach at Louisville, fans, rivals, and pundits have debated and discussed just what it is that Louisville football needs to do or needs to have happen for it to both recover what was lost in the dreadful three years of Kragthorpe and achieve even greater success in the future. Some of the answers are automatic: great coaching, recruiting, facilities, even luck. But those things are true of any football program at any time be it building, rebuilding, or maintaining. Louisville has had it’s share of each of those at times and has flourished when enjoying them simultaneous (think of the coaching of Bobby Petrino and luck of having two recruits the stature of Michael Bush and Brian Brohm in your own back yard). Despite having enjoyed some level of success, the answer for Louisville is even more mundane than any of those things. What Louisville needs right now is what every perennially successful program has had at one time or another: a period of successful stability.
What Is Successful Stability?
By successful stability, I mean a period of a decade or longer where the football program is characterized by the following things (the stadium bullet may be debatable in some instances):
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A coach who stays for longer than a decade.
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A coach who wins consistently in that decade or longer time frame.
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Games that are played in the same stadium for that period of “successful stability”.
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A schedule that contains substantially the same teams every year with obvious exceptions annually (you can include in this a clear and stable conference affiliation)
While all of these characteristics are self-evident, it’s important to recognize that no program that has risen to the upper echelon of college football has done so without an easily identifiable period where the program was both successful and stable. Conversely, there are no examples of programs that consistently win with no continuity (especially at the head coaching position). The period of stable success, then, lays a foundation, a new and elevated baseline below which it is highly unlikely to fall for any substantial period of time.
Historical Examples
If you were to rattle off a list of the the greatest programs in the history of college football, it would be easy to identify that period of successful stability that ultimately defines the program. For instance
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Ohio State under Woody Hayes (1951-1978). Record 205-61-10. All in the Big Ten against the same opponents in the same stadium that has only expanded.
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Oklahoma under Bud Wilkinson (1944-1963). Record 145-29-4. All Big Eight and later Big XII opponents in the same stadium since 1923.
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Michigan under Bo Schembechler (1969-1989). Record 194-48-5. All in the Big Ten against the same opponents in the same stadium since 1927.
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Alabama under Bear Bryant (1958-1982). Record 232-46-9. All in the Southeastern Conference alternating between Legion Field and Bryant Denny Stadium which opened in 1929.
There are plenty of other examples that you could cite from other historically great programs like Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas, or USC, etc. They all have these same characteristics.
Recent Examples
Examples of successful stability don’t reside only in the past. In the past 25-30 years, as the profitability and popularity of college football has grown, new programs have begun winning to a degree previously unknown in the school’s history. Even in these more recent there is always the same identifiable period of successful stability that serves as the springboard. Two noticeable differences the rise of the more recent powers: the landmark coach’s tenure is shorter but still longer than a decade and there are the first signs of conference joining/switching:
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Florida State under Bobby Bowden (1976-2009). Record 304-97-4. All in Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee which grew from a raw outdoor stadium to an 80,000+ seat complex under his leadership. Moved from an independent to the ACC in 1992.
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Florida under Steve Spurrier (1990-2001). Record 122-27-1. All in the SEC and in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
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Virginia Tech under Frank Beamer (1987-present). Record 187-92-2. All in Lane Stadium which opened in 1965 but as an independent, Big East member, and ACC member.
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West Virginia under Don Nehlen (1980-2000). Record 149-93-4. All played in the same stadium. From 1980-1991 as an independent. From 1991-present in the Big East.
The lone exception to this basic formula that I have been able to locate is the Miami Hurricanes. Miami has won five national championships since 1980 despite not having a single coach in that time who stayed for more than six seasons. Perhaps the situation in Miami is deserving of a separate blog entry. Suffice it to say the above average abundance of talent available in such close proximity might explain why the Hurricanes have been able to win quickly under persistent coaching changes. But, Miami has also had several losing seasons in this same time frames. Combine that with the move from the historic Orange Bowl to a less identifiable NFL stadium in Miami and it becomes a larger question if Miami can continue to win with such constant coaching turnover.
Historical Perspective on Louisville
Louisville has never had this period of successful stability. This fact alone explains why Louisville has struggled to maintain capacity attendance in losing seasons (the attendance dips everywhere when the team is losing, anyone that maintains otherwise is being naive or dishonest), but the attendance dips under Steve Kragthorpe (and previously under Ron Cooper in the late 1990s) are evidence of a fan base that’s new and inexperienced at supporting a big time college football program like those mentioned above.
If you take a look at the specifics of Louisville football in the same time frame as the more recent rising powers listed above, it is simultaneously heartening to see some of the similarities and alarming to note some of the contrasts. But, it is the contrasts that explain everything. Consider the sobering facts about Louisville football Bob Weber was hired as coach in 1980:
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Only two of the seven head coaches since 1980 have ended their Louisville tenure with a winning record (John L. Smith was 41-21 and Bobby Petrino was 41-9). Even Howard Schnellenberger, who did so much to build the program in his 10 seasons at the helm left with a 54-56-2 record.
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Louisville did not join its first I-A conference until 1996 (Conference USA). Since 1980 Louisville’s been an independent, a member of Conference USA, and a member of the Big East. This movement between independent status and the two changes of conferences have made it nearly impossible to maintain constant opponents. The schedule in 1980 was very different from the schedule in 1990, 2000 or even 2010. There is little to no historical schedule continuity to build a football tradition on.
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Louisville’s most fierce annual football rivalry, Kentucky, has only been a consistent annual opponent since 1994.
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Louisville has played its games in a minor league baseball stadium before crowds of 5,000 or less, a new on-campus football stadium holding 42,000, and now in 2010 will play in an expanded stadium that holds approximately 57,000. It is only now beginning to have the opportunity to develop an attachment and association of the venue itself with the team and with the success of the team.
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The average tenure of a Louisville coach, since World War II (1946-present) has been 5.8 years. A number that is heavily skewed by Frank Camp’s 23 seasons as coach from 1946-1968. Removing Camp’s numbers, Louisville has had nine head coaches in a 40 year period. Than averages out to less than four years per coach since 1969. The constant turnover has kept the program from ever gaining traction and building something truly sustainable.
Successful Stability at Louisville Now?
Louisville fans should be hoping, above all else, that new head coach Charlie Strong stays at Louisville for well above the average stay of recent coaches. Coaches leave Louisville. It’s the sad story of the program. As obvious as it sounds, the winning coaches leave for bigger and better opportunities (this was the case dating all the way back to Lee Corso in 1972) and the losing coaches are fired (Ron Cooper or Steve Kragthorpe most recently). Louisville desperately needs Charlie Strong to be the cornerstone of long and lasting success. That means they need him to win games at a high level (8+ wins per year after the requisite rebuilding time needed to repair the Kragthorpe damage) and they need him to stay for that seemingly magical decade or longer period of time.
Is it reasonable to hope Charlie Strong hangs around where Petrino and Smith bolted before? It’s more reasonable than it has ever been in Louisville’s history. The football program has access to more resources than it has ever had in times past. Those resources include an enhanced revenue stream from the expanded stadium which is almost entirely sold out, the recruiting and television advantages of being in a BCS automatic qualifying conference, and facilities that are easily in the top 10% in the nation. None of those things were true in 2002 or 2006 when Smith and Petrino left for other jobs.
A second factor in Louisville’s favor is Charlie Strong himself. First, Charlie showed his emotional attachment to this, his first opportunity to become a head coach, and it seems that the long and painful wait has removed the temptation to be a coach solely looking to jump the next big thing. He even made mention of the fact that he and his wife bought a large home here and that he hoped fans would see that purchase as proof that he wanted to stay here long term. Second, Charlie is personally attached to this area. He’s been friends with athletic director Tom Jurich for over a decade and has a long friendship with prominent breeders associated with Churchill Downs. So he has roots and attachments to the area. Third, Charlie is 49 years old. If he were to have five good seasons as Louisville’s head coach, at 55 years of age, would he want to uproot to take over a bigger job? While there are always jobs that no coach will turn down (say Urban Meyer leaves Florida in five years) who would blame Strong for leaving? But, at 55, it seems equally likely that Strong would stay and build a legacy. Fourth, Charlie has said that through the frustrations of not getting the jobs he wanted previously, he felt there were racial components that he could not overcome. But, he has steadfastly maintained that rather than being an outspoken critic or lobbyist for other black coaches, he feels his duty is to be the absolute best coach and build the absolute program he can build so that he can both set an example and give other young black coaches opportunities on his staff. That mindset is more indicative of a man focused on laying a foundation and building a legacy than simply climbing the coaching ladder.
If all of that is the case, Louisville may finally have that critical piece that has eluded it for decades. A stable and successful period under the same leadership that propels the program forward to previous unreached heights. All Charlie has to do is win.